NBA Outright Winner Odds: Which Team Offers the Best Value This Season?
You know, I was watching some NBA preseason games the other day and it got me thinking about how much the landscape has changed since last season. It's funny - I was playing this indie game called Wanderstop recently that really made me look at sports predictions differently. The game follows this warrior named Alta who's built her entire identity around being the best fighter, only to find herself completely lost when she starts losing matches. That's kind of what happens to championship favorites in the NBA sometimes - teams that look unbeatable on paper suddenly find themselves struggling when the reality of the season hits.
Right now, if you look at the outright winner odds across major sportsbooks, the Boston Celtics are sitting at around +380, which honestly feels about right given their roster. They've kept their core intact and added some decent bench depth. But here's where I disagree with the conventional wisdom - I think there's better value elsewhere. The Celtics are like Alta at the beginning of her journey - everyone assumes they'll dominate because they've done it before, but sports have this funny way of humbling even the most talented teams. Remember last season when everyone had Phoenix as a lock for the Finals? Yeah, that didn't exactly work out.
What really interests me are teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, currently at +1200. Now hear me out - this is where we can learn from Alta's story. She had to venture into unknown territory and essentially rebuild herself from scratch. The Thunder remind me of that - they're young, hungry, and not burdened by the weight of past championships. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is that emerging superstar who hasn't been psychologically worn down by playoff disappointments yet. Last season they surprised everyone by winning 52 games, and Chet Holmgren's rookie year showed flashes of genuine brilliance. At these odds, they represent what I'd call "calculated risk" territory.
Then you've got the usual suspects - Denver at +450, Milwaukee at +600, Phoenix at +800. The Nuggets are the defending champions, and Nikola Jokic is still the best player in basketball if you ask me. But here's the thing about repeat championships - it's incredibly difficult, both physically and mentally. Teams get better at exploiting your weaknesses, the travel wears you down, and there's this subtle psychological fatigue that sets in. It's like what happens to Alta when she ventures deeper into the woods - the very skills that made her successful start to feel heavier, less effective. The Nuggets will be great, but at +450, I'm not sure there's enough value there for my money.
Let me tell you about my dark horse pick - the New Orleans Pelicans at +2500. I know, I know, they've got injury concerns and Zion Williamson's fitness is always a question mark. But when this team is healthy? They're terrifying. They finished last season with a 49-33 record despite Zion missing significant time, and their defensive rating of 111.5 was top-10 in the league. At 25-to-1 odds, that's the kind of longshot that could really pay off. It's like betting on Alta when she's at her weakest point in the story - everyone counts her out, but sometimes hitting rock bottom is exactly what someone needs to find a new way to win.
The Lakers at +1800 and Warriors at +2000 are interesting cases too. LeBron James is entering his 21st season, which is just insane when you think about it. Stephen Curry will be 36 this season. These are legends, no question, but they're also in that phase where Father Time remains undefeated. I'd compare them to Alta seeking out the combat master - they're relying on wisdom and experience rather than pure physical dominance now. There's value there, but it's risky value.
What I'm really looking for in value bets is teams that have shown consistent improvement, have young stars on the rise, and aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. That's why my money's going on Oklahoma City and New Orleans. The Thunder improved their win total by 16 games last season, and they've got all their draft capital still available for mid-season upgrades. The Pelicans, when healthy, have one of the most balanced rosters in the league. At these odds, you're getting potential championship returns without having to risk too much capital.
It's like that moment in Wanderstop where Alta realizes she doesn't need to be the same kind of warrior to succeed - she just needs to find a new approach. The teams that offer the best value aren't always the obvious choices. Sometimes they're the ones flying under the radar, building something special while nobody's paying attention. That's where the real betting opportunities lie - in recognizing potential before it becomes obvious to everyone else. So while the Celtics and Nuggets will probably be great, I'm putting my faith (and my money) on the teams that have more to prove and less to lose.
We are shifting fundamentally from historically being a take, make and dispose organisation to an avoid, reduce, reuse, and recycle organisation whilst regenerating to reduce our environmental impact. We see significant potential in this space for our operations and for our industry, not only to reduce waste and improve resource use efficiency, but to transform our view of the finite resources in our care.
Looking to the Future
By 2022, we will establish a pilot for circularity at our Goonoo feedlot that builds on our current initiatives in water, manure and local sourcing. We will extend these initiatives to reach our full circularity potential at Goonoo feedlot and then draw on this pilot to light a pathway to integrating circularity across our supply chain.
The quality of our product and ongoing health of our business is intrinsically linked to healthy and functioning ecosystems. We recognise our potential to play our part in reversing the decline in biodiversity, building soil health and protecting key ecosystems in our care. This theme extends on the core initiatives and practices already embedded in our business including our sustainable stocking strategy and our long-standing best practice Rangelands Management program, to a more a holistic approach to our landscape.
We are the custodians of a significant natural asset that extends across 6.4 million hectares in some of the most remote parts of Australia. Building a strong foundation of condition assessment will be fundamental to mapping out a successful pathway to improving the health of the landscape and to drive growth in the value of our Natural Capital.
Our Commitment
We will work with Accounting for Nature to develop a scientifically robust and certifiable framework to measure and report on the condition of natural capital, including biodiversity, across AACo’s assets by 2023. We will apply that framework to baseline priority assets by 2024.
Looking to the Future
By 2030 we will improve landscape and soil health by increasing the percentage of our estate achieving greater than 50% persistent groundcover with regional targets of:
– Savannah and Tropics – 90% of land achieving >50% cover
– Sub-tropics – 80% of land achieving >50% perennial cover
– Grasslands – 80% of land achieving >50% cover
– Desert country – 60% of land achieving >50% cover
